A rough weekend for Labour as smaller parties muscle in

October 03, 2025
By Catherine McGregor

Mōrena, and welcome to The Bulletin

In today’s edition: Government target update shows mixed progress; Police college taught recruits unapproved and potentially dangerous arrest tactic for years. But first, Te Pāti Māori’s landslide in Tāmaki Makaurau and NZ First’s chest-beating in Palmerston North raise challenges for Labour's 2026 campaign.

New Te Pāti Māori MP Oriini Kaipara and former Labour minister Stuart Nash. (Photos: Supplied / Kerry Marshall / Getty Images)

Smaller parties circle Labour’s base

Peeni Henare didn’t just lose Tāmaki Makaurau on Saturday – he was thumped by Oriini Kaipara in a result that underscored Labour’s eroding hold on Māori voters. As Liam Rātana puts it in The Spinoff this morning: “It would appear that a lot of Māori voters – if not a majority – genuinely doubt the ability of Labour’s Māori caucus to be unapologetically Māori while they remain answerable to a major party.” The byelection was only half of Labour’s headache. The same day, former Labour minister Stuart Nash strode onto the NZ First conference stage to give, in the words of the Herald’s Adam Pearse, “a loving speech… in which he said NZ First was the only party focused on core issues impacting New Zealanders”.

Nash told reporters afterward that he suspected “the Labour Party's probably abandoned me” and that Labour is now “not the party that my grandfather [former prime minister Walter Nash] or my father talked about”.

What the landslide victory means for Te Pāti Māori (and Labour)

Kaipara’s ‘unapologetic’ mandate

The scale of Kaipara’s win – almost twice Henare’s tally, according to the provisional count – surprised even Te Pāti Māori and signalled that, for those who did vote (turnout was just 27%), experience mattered less than a promise of “unapologetic representation”. Voters appeared unbothered by her seemingly shaky grasp of party policy; in the end, her energetic, insurgent approach won out.

Election night also emphasised TPM’s fraught relationship with mainstream news, with TVNZ, Stuff, RNZ and the Sunday Star-Times among the outlets denied access to the party’s election event. Asked by RNZ about the ethics of barring journalists, Kaipara – a former journalist herself – said the focus was on acknowledging whānau and running the night by tikanga.

NZ First reloads for 2026

While TPM banked its sixth seat, NZ First used its Palmerston North convention to sketch a path from eight seats to double digits – largely at Labour’s expense. Shane Jones was blunt about the plan: “to take that vote as much as possible from people who may be toying with the idea of running with Labour”. Meanwhile Winston Peters supplied the headlines: a campaign to lift compulsory KiwiSaver contributions to 10% (via staged increases) and a compulsory “Kiwi values document” for new migrants. The weekend had plenty of theatre, too: Lyric Waiwiri-Smith’s dispatch this morning on The Spinoff catalogues the five “most bizarro” moments, including a remit that began as a “health check for all women at 45” and, after floor debate, had “women” stripped out. The revised line – “for all New Zealanders over 45” – was, as Lyric quipped, “A rare win for the non-binary community.”

The five most bizarro moments from the last day of the NZ First convention

Stuart Nash, the ‘unsurprising’ surprise

In the Sunday Star-Times (paywalled), Thomas Manch notes Nash’s conference cameo was only barely surprising: since his 2023 sacking for emailing donors about Cabinet discussions, the right-leaning ex-minister has regularly praised Peters and jabbed at Chris Hipkins, his former boss. His pitch on Saturday mixed criticism of Nicola Willis over the cost of living with a claim that NZ First better reflects Labour’s old values. Yet Nash is also an awkward fit, writes Manch: he now sells New Zealand as a new home for wealthy foreign investors, champions the government’s golden-visa settings and sits on the Taxpayers’ Union board – positions that are a tough sell to NZ First’s base, for whom increasing immigration and “slash-and-burn” free-market instincts are a turn-off.

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Government target update shows mixed progress

Four of the government’s nine flagship targets are now considered “at risk” of being met, according to new data tracked by RNZ data journalist Farah Hancock. The latest quarterly update shows a sharp rise in Jobseeker recipients, now at 216,000, and stubbornly low achievement in reading, writing and maths. Education and employment remain the toughest areas, with agencies warning the targets may not be achievable without significant policy shifts.

There was better news elsewhere. Targets to cut the number of households in emergency housing and reduce victims of assault or robbery have already been met, while greenhouse gas emissions and youth offending targets are deemed “on track”. Two major health goals, shorter emergency department waits and faster elective treatment, remain “feasible” but far behind schedule. Officials say delivery on those targets will require “significant system-wide change”, though $164m in new funding has been allocated to urgent and after-hours care.

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Click and Collect

NZ Police College taught recruits an unapproved arrest tactic – involving leaning hard on a prone person's head – for three years "under the radar". (NZ Herald)
Christchurch's Mike Davidson is heading to parliament on the Green Party list – and may also end up with a community board seat if he wins his local election next month. (The Press)
Sealord is proposing the closure of its Nelson fish factory with the loss of 79 jobs, while Auckland Museum could cut up to 30 jobs, citing tough economic conditions and the unplanned closure of parts of the building due to asbestos. (RNZ)
Southern polytechs are planning to compete hard for international students in an attempt to survive post-Te Pūkenga. (The Press)
Of the five top Wellington mayoral candidates, only two – Andrew Little and Alex Baker – have agreed to reveal their main campaign donors. (The Post)
New Zealand income growth is one of the worst in the world. (RNZ)

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